The Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries - Does the Classifications Scheme Matter?

Official and four alternative regime classification schemes based on observed exchange rate behaviour are used to examine the relationship with inflation and growth in developing countries. For an identical sample of observations from 73 countries for 1984-2001, only the scheme based on parallel rates suggests a significant effect (negative) of floating on growth. Floats that claim to be pegs, or have high exchange rate volatility, are the ones with lower growth. Hard pegs offer inflation benefits. Floating is not consistently associated with higher inflation than soft pegs, and any apparent association is a possible by-product of the design of the classification algorithms.exchange rate regimes, growth, inflation

Inflation persistence and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries

Using data for 102 developing countries, it is shown that inflation persistence is particularly low in countries on hard pegs, and particularly high in countries with severe inflationary problems. Inflation persistence is similar under floating and soft pegs. The finding of low inflation persistence in hard pegs is a new result.

What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation

Real effective exchange rate volatility is examined for 90 countries using monthly data from January 1990 to June 2006. Volatility decreases with openness to international trade and per capita GDP, and increases with inflation, particularly under a horizontal peg or band, and with terms-of-trade volatility. The choice of exchange rate regime matters. After controlling for these effects, a free float adds at least 45 % to the standard deviation of the real effective exchange rate, relative to a conventional peg, but most other regimes make little difference. The results are robust to alternative volatility measures and to sample selection bias.Exchange rate regimes, inflation, volatility

Inflation Persistence and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Developing Countries

Using data for 102 developing countries, it is shown that inflation persistence is particularly high in countries with severe inflationary problems, and particularly low in countries on hard pegs. Inflation persistence is similar under floating and soft pegs.Inflation, persistence, exchange rates

Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Discipline - Only Hard Pegs Make a Difference

Previous research has suggested that pegged exchange rates are associated with lower inflation than floating rates. In which direction does the causality run? Using data from a large sample of developing countries from 1984 to 2000, we confirm that "hard" pegs (currency boards or a shared currency) reduce inflation and money growth. There is no evidence that "soft" pegs confer any monetary discipline. The choice between soft pegs and floats is determined by inflation: when inflation is low, pegs tend to be chosen and sustained, and when inflation is high, either floats are chosen or there are frequent regime switches.

Classifying exchange rate regimes: a statistical analysis of alternative methods

Four different schemes for classifying exchange rate regimes are compared for developing countries. Disagreements are substantial, and alternative schemes disagree as much with each other as with the official scheme. Only the official scheme shows a trend towards floating

Does corruption impact on firms'ability to conduct business in Mauritania ? evidence from investment climate survey data

This paper seeks to understand whether Mauritanian firms deem corruption as an obstacle to operate and grow, to identify the profile of firms that are more likely to make informal payments, and to quantify the size of these payments. The results of the analysis show that perceptions of corruption can be potentially misleading. Corruption is not considered to be one of the most taxing factors impeding the growth of firms in Mauritania. Yet, its cost to firms is significant and greater than in the comparator group countries. This means that corruption is internalized by firms and considered an accepted practice. Alternatively, firms may fear reporting corruption practices for fear of retaliation. Econometric evidence on the propensity and intensity of bribes suggests that medium-size firms suffer the most from corruption in Mauritania. Larger firms are more established and connected, do not fear exiting the market, and are less likely to be harassed. Smaller firms are less visible and may be able to escape the control of public officials by operating largely in the informal sector. Medium-size firms are the most likely to pay bribes and to pay the highest amounts as a percentage of their total annual sales, which places a heavy burden on their ability to grow.Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Access to Finance,Governance Indicators,Microfinance,National Governance

What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation

Real effective exchange rate volatility is examined for 90 countries using monthly data from January 1990 to June 2006. Volatility decreases with openness to international trade and per capita GDP, and increases with inflation, particularly under a horizontal peg or band, and with terms - of - trade volatility. The choice of exchange rate regime matters. After controlling for these effects, and independent float adds at least 45% to the standard deviation of the real effective exchange rate, relative to a conventional peg, but must other regimes make little difference. The results are robust to alternative volatility measures and to sample selection bias.Exchange rate regimes; Inflation; Volatility

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN: Identifying Supply-Side Constraints to Export Performance in Ecuador: An Exercise with Investment Climate Survey Data

We apply a Heckman selection model to the 2003-Investment Climate Survey (ICS) to investigate supply-side constraints to export performance at the firm level in Ecuador. To correct for the non-random truncation problem, we use the Heckman selection model to estimate the probability of exporting (export propensity) and the share of total sales that are exported (export intensity) by Ecuadorian firms. A baseline model with 12 independent variables divided into three categories – idiosyncratic characteristics, technology, and business environment – is developed. Three other models are developed with the addition of variables related to trade integration, business environment, and infrastructure. Results corroborate with the hypothesis implicit in the Heckman model, which considers both decisions made by a firm – whether to export, and how much of its sales to export – to be interdependent. In the Ecuadorian case, three important results for the firm’s export performance are found: technology matters; infrastructure does not; and trade orientation is significant, with specialized firms tending to have smaller export intensity when having the countries of the Andean Community as their main trade partners, the opposite happening if the U.S. is their main trade partner. We find a robust and stable relationship for export propensity and intensity with size, import of inputs, labor regulations, in-house R&D, quality certification, web-use, and foreign ownership. Also, capacity utilization and trade with the U.S. positively affect export intensity, while trade within the Andean Community has the opposite effect in our outcome variable. No significant relationship was found for the infrastructure variables.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4179, March 2007.Ecuador; exports; innovation; foreign networks; business environment; firm level